The Yellow Line: From Gaza to South Lebanon

Estimate · TE-2026-06-19

The Estimate — 19 June 2026

This is the week the deal that gates Lebanon arrived and named Lebanon in its strongest possible form, and the week that naming changed nothing on the ground. The United States and Iran signed the fourteen-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, Trump and Pezeshkian electronically on Wednesday and Trump again over a Versailles dinner, with Pakistan’s Sharif countersigning Thursday as mediator and declaring it in force.

19 Jun 2026

Source File · SF-LBN-DIPLO-2026-06

The Nine Mediation Tracks Around Lebanon

Lebanon sits in the densest diplomatic field of the war. Nine concurrent tracks converge on a Lebanese settlement, and not one holds an instrument that binds Israeli behavior on the ground. Convergence is broad and the enforcement floor is empty.

26 Jun 2026

Assessment · AST-LBN-ECON-2026-05

Lebanon's Economy at the May 2026 Inflection

The stabilization that has held the Lebanese economy together since 2024 is intact at the May 2026 inflection, but all three of its supports are under simultaneous strain. The pound has traded within half a percent of its fixed rate of 89,500 to the dollar throughout the war. The central bank’s foreign-currency reserves, counting both cash and foreign bond holdings, stood near 12.0 billion dollars before the war and 11.43 billion at the end of April 2026, a drawdown of...

21 May 2026