OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS
Core Group's working production: daily, weekly, and as the situation requires.
Issued on a clock. The running read of a fast situation.
Daily situational awareness across Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Israel, and Iran. Each issue synthesizes the day's developments and positions them within the larger analytical picture.
The Dispatch — 29 June 2026
The Us Iran Ceasefire Collapses Into Renewed Strikes Covers: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine.
ReadThe weekly synthesis of what is resolving, what is likely, and what to monitor.
The Estimate — 19 June 2026
This is the week the deal that gates Lebanon arrived and named Lebanon in its strongest possible form, and the week that naming changed nothing on the ground. The United States and Iran signed the fourteen-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, Trump and Pezeshkian electronically on Wednesday and Trump again over a Versailles dinner, with Pakistan’s Sharif countersigning Thursday as mediator and declaring it in force.
ReadIssued when the work is ready. The record that underpins the rest.
A focused file on a single question. It weighs the evidence and makes the call. Issued as the situation requires.
The Nine Mediation Tracks Around Lebanon
Lebanon sits in the densest diplomatic field of the war. Nine concurrent tracks converge on a Lebanese settlement, and not one holds an instrument that binds Israeli behavior on the ground. Convergence is broad and the enforcement floor is empty.
ReadThe evidence base of record. Documented findings, compiled without a schedule, that underpin the judgments made across our work.
Lebanon's Economy at the May 2026 Inflection
The stabilization that has held the Lebanese economy together since 2024 is intact at the May 2026 inflection, but all three of its supports are under simultaneous strain. The pound has traded within half a percent of its fixed rate of 89,500 to the dollar throughout the war. The central bank’s foreign-currency reserves, counting both cash and foreign bond holdings, stood near 12.0 billion dollars before the war and 11.43 billion at the end of April 2026, a drawdown of...
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Forecasting record: the judgments we publish, measured against what came to pass. Read