Source File · SF-LBN-FIRE-2026-03
A buffer to the Litani River suppresses rocket fire against Israel's western border but fails on the eastern flank, where the Galilee panhandle and the Golan salient shorten firing distances. Hezbollah fires from ridges between the Litani and the Zahrani that keep the Arash-4 and Fadi-1 within reach of the Galilee, Safed, and Tiberias. Israel has pushed evacuation orders south of the Zahrani in response, with the Sayniq and Awali lines next if suppression falls short.
Context
A buffer zone extending to the Litani River (approximately 25km depth) suppresses rocket fire threatening the western Israeli border but fails to protect the eastern flank, where the Galilee Panhandle and Golan Heights create a geographic salient that shortens effective firing distances.
Hezbollah concentrates the majority of its rocket launches, including approximately 200 fired on 12 March, from ridge positions located south and east of Nabatiyeh, sandwiched between the Litani and Zahrani Rivers. These positions place the 122mm Arash-4 (45km range) and 220mm Fadi-1 (70km range) within reach of Israeli border towns, the Upper and Lower Galilee, and Haifa in edge cases.
Israel expanded evacuation orders south of the Zahrani River, moving from a Litani-anchored suppression model to a deeper operational envelope. If suppression south of the Zahrani proves insufficient, evacuation orders will likely extend to the Sayniq and Awali Rivers [probability: 60-70%].
The Almas-3/4 ATGM threat east of Nabatiyeh operates on a separate targeting logic (16km maximum range) and reaches Israeli border towns directly. This layer persists even if rocket positions are degraded.
Web edition of Core Group Source File SF-LBN-FIRE-2026-03, issued 13 March 2026, adapted for the web. The PDF edition is the report of record and carries the full methodology and source apparatus.